Tariffs, Trade and a Fed Win

In the July 2026 edition of The ICR D.C. Insider, we share our insights and analysis about developments in Washington that could have an immediate and long-term impact on your business. This month, we cover new tariff threats tied to digital services taxes and forced labor, the wind-down of the USMCA trade pact, a Supreme Court ruling reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s independence from presidential removal, and fresh activity at the SEC, CFTC and DOJ.

Tariffs & Trade

• Trump Threatens New Tariffs on Some Countries – President Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on the goods of any country that imposes a digital services tax on U.S. companies. The Supreme Court previously struck down the President’s global reciprocal tariffs, and it is unclear which statute he would use to carry out this threat. Digital services taxes are typically structured to apply only to the world’s largest and most established tech companies (including Meta, Alphabet and Amazon) with Trump saying that these tariffs “will be immediately imposed” should countries proceed with their digital tax.

Supreme Court

• Court Gives President Ability to Fire Many – But Not All – Agency Commissioners – The Supreme Court ruled that the President can fire officials at independent regulatory agencies for any reason, while denying the ability to do the same to Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook without meaningful legal scrutiny, reaffirming the central bank’s longstanding insulation from presidential control. Chief Justice John Roberts, who wrote both opinions said:
  • “Not only the fact of independence but also the appearance of independence is key to the Federal Reserve’s design.” Without limits on removal, Justice Roberts warned, Fed governors would know that any perceived or alleged misstep could lead to their removal, something that “would surely weigh” on rate-setters as they decided how to do their jobs.
  • Roberts made clear that Cook cannot be fired without some minimal procedural protections that would allow the evidence to be aired. “Only then,” Roberts added, “can the courts assess the validity and sufficiency of such charges.”

SEC

• Bipartisan “Test the Waters” Bill for Pre-IPO Candidates Introduced – A bipartisan group of U.S. senators introduced the Encouraging Public Offerings Act, which would codify and permanently protect a 2019 SEC rule that allows private companies of all sizes to gauge market interest before officially pursuing an IPO. Led by Senators Ted Budd (R-N.C.) and Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.), the bill would allow issuers to “test the waters,” with respect to communications between a would-be issuer, accredited institutional buyers, and investors prior to an IPO to gauge interest in a potential security offering. Rep. Ann Wagner (R-Mo.) introduced the legislation in the House.

• Updated Strategic Plan Published for Comment – The SEC today published its Draft Strategic Plan that focuses on returning the agency to the core mission: protect investors; maintain fair, orderly, and efficient markets; and facilitate capital formation. As articulated by Chairman Paul Atkins, the Plan’s three goals are:
  • Renew our regulatory policy focus to support innovation, capital formation, market efficiency, and investor protection.Shift our regulatory practices to increase stakeholder engagement, facilitate compliance efforts of market participants, and effectively return our enforcement approach to Congress’ original intent.
  • Optimize our operational efficiency by enhancing our organizational structure, modernizing our technology, reforming employee performance management, and implementing robust internal performance reporting that incorporates accountability for resources and program success.

CFTC

• CFTC Rescinds Policy Regarding Denials of Settlements in Enforcement Actions – The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) rescinded a policy where the Commission would not accept settlement offers when the defendant continued to deny the allegations in the complaint or administrative order. Rescinding this policy aligns the Commission with the overwhelming majority of federal agencies and gives the CFTC more flexibility to settle enforcement actions, which conserves resources, provides certainty, and potentially expedites the return of money to injured investors. The rescission recognizes that the effect on the public interest from such denials may be minimal and that the policy itself may have created an incorrect impression that the Commission is trying to shield itself from criticism.

Department of Justice

• New Antitrust Division Chief on Track – President Trump plans to nominate a technology critic and telecommunications lawyer, Adam Candeub, to lead the antitrust division at the Department of Justice. Currently the General Counsel of the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), Candeub, authored part of the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 where he criticized big technology companies for impeding free speech online.

China